Port Rail Ramp Index Reflects Changes in Import and Export Volumes Amid Regulatory Developments

The Port Rail Ramp Index recently released by ITS Logistics indicates a decline in import and export volumes. This decline is accompanied by changes in port congestion and regulatory developments impacting tariffs, creating an environment of heightened uncertainty in the domestic supply chain.

Decline in Import and Export Volumes

According to the Port Rail Ramp Index, import and export volumes are on the decline. This trend is evident in the latest data for U.S. container imports, which recorded 2,306,687 Twenty-foot Equivalent Units (TEUs) in October. This figure represents a 7.5% decrease compared to the previous year, 2024, and a slight month-over-month decrease of 0.1%. Despite this overall decline, imports from China saw a month-over-month increase of 5.4%, although overall duties on Chinese goods remain high at 47%.

Export volumes are also facing challenges, largely due to ongoing tariff negotiations. The U.S.-China tariff agreement reached in May has not fully stabilized the situation, with 92% of U.S. cargo shipments now subject to new duties. The forecast anticipates a 5.6% drop in import cargo volumes by 2025.

Alleviation of Port Congestion

While import and export volumes are decreasing, port congestion is reportedly alleviating. Normal operations have resumed at ports and terminals, and infrastructure projects and project freight are expected to increase. The Port of Los Angeles, for example, handled 892,340 TEUs in June, with a 7% increase in processed empty container units, totaling 295,746 units. Despite this, the Port of Oakland community has felt the impact of these changes, as new congressional bills are anticipated to affect activities through 2026.

Congestion in key rail lanes has been reported, but the overall trend suggests an easing of pressure on port facilities. The Port Rail Ramp Index, which covers 22 coastal ports and 30 rail ramps, forecasts port container and dray operations, providing a comprehensive outlook on the situation.

Regulatory Developments and Tariff Implications

Regulatory changes are significantly influencing the current landscape. The Supreme Court heard a case on tariffs on November 5, following an appeals court's decision that deemed a previous tariff ruling illegal. The outcome of this case is anticipated in November, with a stay on the tariff ruling in effect until October 14. On the same date, new port fees on Chinese vessels began, further complicating the tariff situation.

In a separate regulatory development, the Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration (FMCSA) froze the issuance of non-domiciled Commercial Driver's Licenses (CDLs). This ruling, however, was blocked by an appeals court, which could potentially impact up to 600,000 drivers who might be removed from the U.S. The issue of non-domiciled drivers and English Language Proficiency (ELP) enforcement remains a contentious point.

Forecasting Future Trends

The ITS Logistics monthly port index provides forecasts for port container and dray operations across the Pacific, Atlantic, and Gulf regions. According to the index, strong inbound volumes are expected on the U.S. West Coast, although overall volumes are projected to subside by September. A dip in demand is anticipated through October, with infrastructure and project freight expected to rise.

The index highlights the complexities of the current import and export environment, driven by regulatory changes and the ongoing tariff negotiations. As stakeholders await the Supreme Court's decision and adjust to new regulations, the Port Rail Ramp Index remains a crucial tool for understanding and navigating the shifting landscape of U.S. port operations.