In 2026, the ocean freight market is expected to face continued volatility as global container fleet capacity and demand both grow by 4%, yet effective capacity is constrained by Suez Canal diversions and severe port congestion affecting 3 million TEU globally. Northern Europe, including Rotterdam and Antwerp, faces significant congestion, with disruptions anticipated to persist until the second half of the year.
Ocean Freight Market Faces Continued Volatility in 2026
The ocean freight market in 2026 is expected to remain volatile due to a range of factors affecting both capacity and demand. Despite a growth in global container fleet capacity and a corresponding rise in demand, disruptions such as Suez Canal diversions and port congestion continue to impact the effective capacity of the shipping industry.
Global Container Fleet Growth and Demand
In 2026, the global container fleet capacity is forecast to grow by 4%, with demand similarly increasing by around 4%. This growth follows a period of aggressive expansion in the fleet, though the pace of growth is now moderating. While nominal capacity is rising, effective capacity growth is expected to reach 5%, taking into account structural bottlenecks and diversions.
The Suez Canal diversions are a significant factor constraining effective capacity, with these disruptions expected to persist until the second half of 2026. Approximately 15% of nominal capacity is removed due to congestion and detours, affecting the overall efficiency of sea freight operations.
Port Congestion Challenges
Port congestion has reached its highest level in two years, impacting close to 3 million TEU globally. Northern Europe is identified as a major pressure point, with key ports such as Rotterdam and Antwerp heavily affected. Southern European ports are also facing severe delays, while congestion issues continue to persist in North China ports.
This congestion has led to significant capacity tightening in Southeast Asia, further exacerbating the challenges faced by the ocean freight market. As a result, there is a cautious optimism about the market outlook for 2026, as the industry navigates these capacity imbalances.
Suez Canal Disruptions and Global Trade Routes
The ongoing disruptions in the Suez Canal have had a notable impact on shipping, with detours constraining capacity. The Asia-Europe trade, in particular, is significant, with volumes expected to peak in February 2026. Ocean freight remains soft amid these capacity imbalances, and the market is driven by these ongoing challenges.
New vessel deliveries are being offset by structural bottlenecks, and European hubs are facing continued congestion issues. Asia-Europe services have seen rate rebounds, while transpacific lanes are experiencing softer demand. Global schedule reliability stands at 65%, with booking three weeks in advance becoming a standard practice.
Market Outlook and Strategic Shifts
The January 2026 Asia-Pacific Freight Market Report indicates that the Global Manufacturing PMI is at its lowest in four months, at 50.5. This situation is contributing to the volatility in the freight market. However, there is an anticipation of AI-driven growth in 2026, which may offer some relief to the market.
Manufacturing strategies such as Taiwan+ and China+ are shifting, with cargo increasingly being routed via alternative hubs. However, inadequate capacity during port congestion and difficulties in choosing second warehouses outside China, combined with limited knowledge of local regulations, pose ongoing challenges for the industry.
In conclusion, while there is cautious optimism for the ocean freight market in 2026, the industry must continue to adapt to capacity imbalances and structural challenges. The anticipated AI-driven growth and strategic shifts in manufacturing and logistics could play a crucial role in shaping the market's future dynamics.