Logistics Sector Growth Forecast and Challenges in Germany for 2026

The logistics sector in Germany is poised for slight growth in 2026, according to the Logistikweisen advisory council. Led by Prof. Christian Kille, the council has developed three potential scenarios in light of ongoing volatile economic conditions. The trend scenario predicts a nominal growth of 2.6 percent and real growth of 0.5 percent. The best-case scenario suggests a nominal increase of 3.2 percent and a real growth of 1.1 percent, while the worst-case scenario anticipates a nominal rise of 2.1 percent but a real decline of 0.4 percent.

Labor Market and Economic Constraints

The forecast is accompanied by a limited relief in the labor market, where IT and driving personnel remain scarce. While automation and artificial intelligence can partially address these shortages, they are not expected to fully compensate for them. Private households are expected to concentrate their spending on necessities, slowing domestic economic activity. The expert panel suggests that although a special fund initiated by the government could provide stimulus, delayed planning and approval processes may hinder growth impacts in the coming year.

"The current structural change, especially in manufacturing industries, brings little relief in 2026 regarding the demand for specialists, skilled workers, and labor in logistics," the advisory council noted.

Technological Advancements and Digitalization

Within companies, digitalization projects and the more intensive use of artificial intelligence are expected to yield productivity gains. However, these gains are often hampered by a lack of know-how and constrained IT budgets. Additionally, rising costs in cybersecurity are consuming funds that could otherwise be used for forward-looking initiatives. The experts estimate that, in the worst-case scenario, cyberattacks could cost up to 1 percentage point of growth.

Sector-Specific Growth and Challenges

The construction sector continues to be the main driver of overall economic growth, but the logistics demand from this segment is too small to generate significant growth for service providers. Similarly, the defense industry is expected to see an increase in demand for logistics, but its impact on overall sector development remains minimal. Export-oriented sectors such as automotive, mechanical engineering, and chemicals are recovering only slightly, if at all. The e-commerce boom appears to be over for now, and the real estate sector is experiencing noticeable vacancies, leading to continued market consolidation, especially among transport companies.

Environmental and Sustainability Concerns

In light of the strained situation, sustainability has taken a backseat in the short term. The transition to alternative drives is progressing slowly, whereas logistics real estate continues to lead in efficiency measures. Rising electricity prices and a lack of attractive government incentives are dampening companies' willingness to invest. For 2025, forecasts suggest a nominal growth corridor between 0.8 and 1.1 percent, with real growth ranging from minus 0.5 to minus 0.8 percent.

Political and Economic Landscape

Economic policy measures are deemed correct and important by the advisory council, though they are not expected to take full effect by 2026. Political decisions are becoming less disruptive and more predictable. However, the impact of these decisions is expected to be minimal in the coming year, with bureaucratic reductions progressing slowly. While the number of infrastructure and other construction projects by the public sector is expected to rise significantly, the lengthy planning and approval processes, exacerbated by a lack of skilled personnel, are likely to delay their logistical effects until after 2026.

Background on the Logistikweisen

The Logistikweisen initiative, established for forecasting the development of the logistics sector in Germany, sees itself as an independent body with scientific and practical expertise. Its objective is to provide forecasts, interpretations, and assessments of the logistics sector's development to aid decision-makers in politics and practice. The initiative identifies key topics, offers insights into logistics practices, and publishes reports with independent data and facts about the sector.

The initiative was founded by Christian Kille and Markus Meißner in 2013, with its first meeting taking place in 2014. It comprises experts selected based on their sector experience, reputation, and demographics. Membership is determined in close coordination with the expert panel, requiring recommendations and personal invitations from the initiators.