Germany's Transport Industry Faces Challenges Amid Economic Stagnation

Germany's transport industry is struggling to stay afloat as the country's economic situation remains stagnant, according to a recent market report by the European Cargo Alliance of International Freight Forwarders (ELVIS) AG.

Economic Growth Remains Elusive

The ELVIS report notes that Germany's economy has shown no signs of recovery, with growth remaining flat in the third quarter of 2025. The country's GDP remained unchanged compared to the previous quarter and grew only 0.3 percent year-on-year.

"The German economy continues to tread water: global crises and unclear economic policy prevent any recovery," said Nikolja Grabowski, member of the ELVIS AG board.

Industrial Production Weakens

The report also highlights a decline in industrial production, with only mixed prospects for the final quarter of the year. Output in chemical products rose by 1.3 percent compared to August 2025, while mechanical engineering fell slightly by 1.1 percent. The automotive sector showed a strong increase of 12.3 percent.

However, year-on-year figures paint a different picture, with all segments declining: chemicals by 0.1 percent, mechanical engineering by 3.7 percent, and motor vehicles and parts by 1.6 percent. Construction output also decreased both month-on-month (-0.9 percent) and year-on-year (-2.2 percent).

Transport Industry Faces Challenges

In the truck transport market, no long-term recovery is in sight. Although truck toll mileage rose by 2.6 percent in October 2025 compared to the previous month, it remained 1.1 percent below last year's level. Reduced capacities continue to strain the market.

"Many customers are already announcing early year-end closures, so December is expected to bring little volume," said Grabowski.

The transport barometer—measuring the freight-to-capacity ratio in the spot market—fell by 5.8 percent month-on-month and 1.2 percent year-on-year. Ifo expectations for road freight transport mirror this, with revenue expectations in October 2025 falling sharply both month-on-month (-4.2 percent) and year-on-year (-12.8 percent).

Cost Developments Stabilize

One small bright spot is that cost developments have largely stabilized. Producer prices in road freight transport rose only slightly in Q2 2025 (+0.6 percent), warehousing prices stayed almost unchanged (+0.3 percent), and producer prices for trucks (+0.2 percent), semi-trailers (0.0 percent) and trailers (-0.1 percent) remained stable. Diesel costs even fell by 1.4 percent month-on-month.

Personnel Costs Remain a Challenge

However, personnel costs remain significantly above the general inflation rate. In Q2 2025, the index for average gross monthly earnings rose by 2.1 percent quarter-on-quarter and 3.7 percent year-on-year. The skilled-worker shortage persists, especially the lack of truck drivers.

"The shortage of personnel and simultaneously rising costs are currently among the biggest challenges in the truck transport market," warned Grabowski.

Importance of Transparent Performance Indicators

Against this backdrop, ELVIS stresses that up-to-date, transparent operational and financial performance indicators are becoming increasingly important for transport companies. They enable firms to respond quickly and precisely to market conditions.

"As digitalization progresses, comprehensive and well-structured data is becoming essential," said Grabowski. "It forms the basis for working more efficiently with automation and artificial intelligence—a clear competitive advantage in economically uncertain times."